The End of the Dark Lord

I love prognostications, even though with the best evidence available no one can predict with 100% certainty what will happen 15 minutes from now, much less with anything as far out as the November election. Nonetheless, with more gut feel than overwhelming evidence, I’m here to share only good news regarding the future of the Donald Trump presidency.

My gut says this: under any reasonably foreseeable scenario, Donald Trump will not be President a year from now.

Excited? I know I am. Let’s start with a little background.

So, does anyone seriously wonder at all what story our President’s tax returns will tell? His behavior the last four years makes the plot line pretty darn clear. Failing real estate mogul gets bailed out by Russian oligarchs, launders their dirty money through his global business operations and owes them bazillions. There will be a myriad of other sordid revelations to be sure, but this is the core picture we have all been waiting to have confirmed.

And confirmed it will be, soon, and then the rotting, putrefied, criminal house of cards we know to be the Trump presidency / business empire will finally start to come tumbling down, thankfully. It will take some time, and the legal gyrations will be frustrating and painful to witness, but the whole ugly mess will start to unravel once these tax returns and their underlying documentation get into the hands of competent law enforcement officials and ultimately Congress. And it’s coming. It’s not a question of whether; it’s a question of when.

So, then we will have in front of us a breathtaking panoply of criminal violations that occurred before his Presidency and a cornucopia of high crimes and misdemeanors that occurred during it to choose from and to work though. Here’s the obvious list, just off the top of my head:

Abuse of Executive Authority, Obstruction of Congress, Obstruction of Justice, Violation of the Emoluments Clause of the Constitution, Campaign Finance Violations, Witness Tampering and Intimidation, Tax Fraud, Bank Fraud, Insurance Fraud, Tax Evasion, Bribery, Racketeering, Extortion, Money Laundering and Lying to a Federal Prosecutor.

Pretty impressive list, eh? I’m sure I’ve left a few out. Treason would be a ripe one Congress could get to evaluate, if for some inexplicable reason this weasel is still in office after the election.

So the man, his family and his business empire are facing annihilation when the wheels of justice and effective government start turning in earnest. Michael Cohen stated that the panic with which Mr. Trump is approaching the election is the panic felt when someone is facing assured financial devastation and significant jail time. Mr. Trump wants to stay in power simply to avoid the prospect of his businesses disintegrating while he’s doing time in the Big House.

So what are the scenarios that lead to his leaving office? These are the ones I’ve heard proffered by pundits and prognosticators knowing much more about this than me.

He quits. Yes, it’s been said that’s still possible if the polls continue to show he is facing a devastating election loss and Republican rats start jumping from the sinking ship and evading his political stench. He will offer to quit in exchange for some sort of immunity deal for himself and his family. A long shot maybe, but I’ve heard this one mentioned as possible just last week by an analyst that know him well.

Biden wins in a landslide. This is the obvious best-case scenario. It will be the hardest for the Dark Lord to contest, but he might offer to make nice and willingly concede if he gets the immunity deal he so desperately craves. Immunity is the key. It’s so much more important to him than an actual second term.

Trump loses narrowly, but maintains election is a sham and won’t immediately leave office without a protracted legal battle. This is where my analysis gets interesting. My view is Republicans only stand with this President because they need his base for votes. They may be jerks, but they are politically astute jerks and are only interested in survival politically, i.e. getting elected. Once Election Day has passed, I expect that many Republicans will want to drop this slimy charlatan like a hot rock so they can rebuild their party. No rational person wants another four years of this insanity, and there must still be some rational Republicans out there and especially in the Senate. In this scenario I think he could be removed by invoking the 25th amendment to the Constitution or he could be impeached. He will still want his immunity, of course, and might resign under threat of removal if he got it.

He wins narrowly by actively and openly suppressing the vote. I believe House Democrats would begin continuous impeachment proceedings and I believe enough Republicans in the Senate would finally get on board to get him the heck out of the White House.

He wins fair and square. Does anyone really believe that’s a possibility? Well, who knows, stranger things are happening every day in this country. But again, I do not see the people of this country or their elected representatives of both parties putting up with this idiocy for another four years. No COVID plan. No economy. Racism. Hatred. Criminality. Suffering, death and destruction. Massive protests. Even civil war has been mentioned as possible as our divisiveness is so intense and Trump’s base has so thoughtfully armed themselves. It could get really fricking nasty, especially if he tries to use his private federal police force in any oppressive or violent way. That said, I trust our military will protect us, not this mad man.

So, there you have it in a nutshell. All the good news you can possibly stand. He’s gone in any reasonable scenario, but the scenario we all must commit to make happen is the first one: an overwhelming Biden-Harris landslide, and but for COVID and the dirty tricks Republicans will play in suppressing the vote, that’s the most likely scenario to me. No Dark Side presidential candidate has ever won decisively preaching this degree of hate and division.

Vice President Biden nailed it in pronouncing that his administration would put an end to this period of darkness. And it just can’t happen soon enough now, can it? This, too then, shall pass. And we’ll all say Amen to that.

(Original art by J.E. Hargate)